Plunking Gomez

Twins-Related Events I Would Be Attending If I Didn't Have to Work Today

Someday, I'm going to marry an investment banker, then I won't have to work on the weekends anymore.  Until that day comes though, I have to miss out on a lot of fun, Twins-related events (including, sadly, actual games) like these:

The TwinsCentric Viewing Party:

All the cool people are going to be at Major's in Blaine to watch the good guys take on the Mighty Whities.  It starts at noon, so you'd better hurry up if you want to go.  The Twins Geek has the details.

Rock Bottom Brewery's Biggest Twins Fan Contest:

Uberblogger Jon Marthaler will be a judge on a panel of local celebrities, selecting the winner from three finalists.  There will be 2-for-1 drink specials, and everyone who shows up gets a free T-shirt.  The fun starts at 5 pm.  More details here.

2010 Twins Predictions

It's 2010 Twins Predictions Day here in the Twins' blogiverse!  I kind of did this earlier, but since Josh Johnson was kind enough to email me this form, I decided to put together my thoughts on the upcoming season in a much more coherent fashion.  Although, I have been drinking a lot of cough syrup lately (hey, I have a cold!), so this might be interesting.  Here we go:

Twins-Specific Predictions 

Twins MVP:  Man Muscles.  He's going to hit 60 45 20 home runs this year.

Twins Top Pitcher:  Francisco Liriano.  Stop me if you've heard this one before:  he's looked really sharp this spring, albeit against some pretty mediocre competition.   However, if his slider continues to have that same sharp bite, and if he can continue to locate his fastball like he's been doing all spring (which was a big problem last year), F-bomb should easily handle major-league hitters.

Twins Best Rookie:  Anthony Slama or Danny Valencia, whoever gets here first.

Twins Most Improved Player:  Delmon. Yep, the player with the most improving to do is going to be the most improved player this year.  Bold prediction, I know.

A.L. Central Prediction (Standings):

Twins:  85-77. Yeah, they're missing a closer and the rotation is a bunch of number three starters at best, but this still looks to be the least flawed team of the deeply flawed AL Central.  The lineup will prop up the suspect pitching by scoring a billion runs.  Book it.

Tigers/White Sox/Indians:  79-83. Eh, I can't decide who's going to end up in second, third, and fourth place.  Each of these teams has its flaws, with the Indians currently leading the American League in "ifs" (if Jake Westbrook can rebound from Tommy John surgery, if Grady Sizemore can rebound from elbow surgery and his unfortunate teacup incident, if Shin-Soo Choo doesn't get traded at the deadline because he won't sign a contract extension, well, you get the idea).  The White Sox are relying on the likes of Jake Peavy and Carlos Quentin to be healthy and productive all season, and Alex Rios to not be a waste of $9.7 million and a roster spot.  Meanwhile, the Tigers are looking at Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis/Nate Robertson to round out their rotation. You see now why I don't think losing Joe Nathan will necessarily cost the Twins the division.

Royals: 65-97. The Royals will once again contend for the worst record in baseball, but will probably fall short against the Pirates or somebody.  Actually, the way things are shaping up in Toronto, Kansas City might not even be the worst team in the American League, though it will be pretty darn close.  Despite boasting a  Cy Young winner and one of the best closers in the league, the Royals will be lucky to avoid finishing dead last in the division for the fourth time in seven seasons.  Kyle Farnsworth might be the fifth starter, that should be fun.

Three Keys to Success for the Twins:

1) Converting every single flyball pitcher on the staff to a groundball pitcher.  Seriously, Rick Anderson needs to get on this, like, yesterday.  On any given night, Delmon Young (-18.9 UZR/150), Michael Cuddyer (-10.1 UZR/150), and Jason Kubel (-18.7 UZR/150) will be allowing routine fly balls to fall in for hits all over the outfield.  Learn to throw worm-burners*, Scott Baker!

2) Francisco Liriano staying healthy and not sucking.  I said this last year, and the Twins won the division anyway, even though F-bomb couldn't do either of those things.  The division doesn't look to be all that strong this year, so the Twins could probably win it anyway even if F-bomb stinks.  Still, a healthy and effective Liriano is the closest thing to an ace the Twins have right now, and likely the difference between contending for the division and contending for the pennant.

3) Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel not regressing.  Some might point to Delmon making big strides as a key to the Twins' success, but it's important to remember that Cuddles and Kubel Khan also put up the best numbers of their careers years last year.  Delmon has been one of the worst everyday players in the league the past couple of seasons, so he'd have to vastly improve just to be a league-average outfielder.  And it would be wonderful if Delmon would do just that, it's just that a league-average player probably won't have much impact on the outcome of the season.  However, If Cuddles and Kubel Khan, 2.0 and 3.1 WAR players last year respectively, both take a huge step backward, as CHONE projects, the Twins could be in serious trouble.

Rest of the League Predictions

A.L. MVP:  If he stays healthy, your reigning AL MVP.

N.L. MVP: Whether he stays healthy or not: the best player in all of baseball.  Seriously, kid's a machine.

A.L. Cy Young:  I think this will finally be King Felix's year.

N.L. Cy Young:  I think this will finally be Roy Halladay's year.

A.L. Rookie of the Year: Anthony Slama Danny Valencia Max Scherzer

N.L. Rookie of the Year: That Heyward fella in Atlanta.

A.L. Breakout Player of the Year: Delmon Young.  I know I say this every year but this is really going to be his year.

N.L. Breakout Player of the Year:  I'd like to vote for Delmon's NL counterpart, but it's hard to look at Jeff Francouer's hot streak after being traded to the Mets as anything more than that. He doesn't seem to have changed his approach at the plate much, and, well, Frenchy just seems kind of dense.  So, I'm going with...Aaron Harang.

A.L. Comeback Player of the Year: I've said this every year since 2007, but this really is F-bomb's year.

N.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Doug Mientkiewicz Jim Edmonds, maybe?  I don't follow the NL that closely. 

A.L. Playoff Predictions: I think the Twins are gonna sneak past the Yankees in the ALDS for once, and then the Red Sox/AL West team in the ALCS.

N.L. Playoff Predictions:  The Braves are gonna win the wild card and sweep everybody, setting up:

World Series Prediction**: A re-match of the greatest world series of all time, with the Twins again beating the Braves in seven games and putting to rest, once and for all, the silly notion that they would never have done it without the Metrodome.  Scott Baker will play the role of Jack Morris in this updated version, and Denard Span will stand in for Kirby Puckett.  It's too bad Go-Go isn't on the team anymore, he could probably fill in for Dan Gladden quite nicely:

*Bryz bait!

**May not actually happen.  Look, even I know that a team with so many question marks probably won't make it very far in the postseason, if they even make it that far at all.  Humor me, people. 

Well Played, Mauer

Yeah, yeah, yeah, paying a 35 year-old catcher $23 million a season might not be the smartest move ever, but whatever.  I fully expect the Twins to be in rebuilding mode by then, after winning the world series a couple of times, naturally.  Although, come to think of it, the Twins might not be paying a 35 year-old Mauer $23 million a season.  Oh sure, the extension is for eight years, but beat writer LaVelle E. Neal, III revealed

this interesting tidbit:

While chasing down a Mauer rumor last week that wasn't true, I had heard that the sides weren't that close to a deal. But indications are that Mauer and Shapiro got together over the last couple of days and realized that the Twins weren't going to improve on their offer and took it.

The details of the extension will probably be made public during tomorrow's press conference, but I'm guessing there is an opt-out clause in there somewhere.  Like C. C. Sabathia with the Yankees, I'm guessing Mauer and his agent negotiated a deal where Mauer could opt out of his contract after a certain number of years (after 2011, in Captain Cheeseburger's case) and enter the free agent market, where he will most likely command a much higher price tag than $23 million a season.  Of course, it's also possible that I'm reading way too much into this and maybe he just really wanted to stay in Minnesota.

UPDATE:  Nope, there's nothing like that in the contract.  It's just $23 million a year for eight years, with a full no-trade clause.  I guess he really hearts us and wants to stay after all.  Twinkie Town has all the highlights and links to the video of his press conference (MLB is still stuck in the non-embeddable dark ages), and here is what Man Muscles had to say for himself:

Ever since I was a little kid I dreamed of playing in the big leagues, and what better place to do it than seven miles from where you grew up?  It's home for me.

Of course, pretty much everyone in major league baseball had to weigh in.   I guess it's kind of a big deal when the American League MVP decides to take less money to stay with his hometown team (though not much less, since he was reportedly asking $25 million a year, and he's still the fourth-highest paid player in baseball and the highest-paid catcher in MLB history).  However, I think Ozzie Guillen, as usual, said it best: 

I wish they didn't sign him so he can go somewhere else and I don't have to face him 19 times. But it's a great for him and great for baseball. God bless his mom and enjoy the money. If you don't know where to spend it, I send him my number.

Eek

It's official: Joe Nathan will need Tommy John surgery. It's not unexpected news, since it's unlikely he would have been able to pitch an entire season with a torn UCL, but it's disappointing nonetheless.  I hate to be a negative Nancy, and I really hope I'm wrong about this, but it looks like this might be the end for Nathan. Optimistically, he will be ready for the start of the 2011 season, but realistically the recovery time from Tommy John is typically two years. This means Nathan will be pushing 37 by the time he's fully ready to pitch again, and the likelihood of a 37 year-old making a complete comeback from TJ is slim.  This makes me sad.  Not only has Nathan quietly been one of the best relievers of the decade, but he's just eight saves away from surpassing Rick Aguilera as the franchise all-time saves leader.  Plus I don't want his pitiful performances in the ALDS to be among his last appearances in a Twins uniform*.

*There's one thing about Nathan that keeps coming up in discussions about his career, and it drives me crazy because it's so obviously a sample-size issue, but I'll have a separate post about it later (No really, I will. It'll take about 5 minutes to write).

So, how much will losing their All-Star closer actually hurt the Twins? Well, losing a 2 WAR reliever like Nathan usually costs a team 2-3 wins over the course of the season.  And that doesn't sound like a lot, but considering that the division race has come down to the wire the past couple of seasons, with an extra playoff game needed to determine the winner, losing Nathan is obviously going to hurt.  However, the Twins were heavily favored to win the division before Nathan went down, and the bullpen is deep enough that a competent replacement should emerge from within the organization.  The division race is certainly more wide-open now, but the White Sox and Tigers are both deeply flawed teams, and the Twins should still be considered slight favorites to win the Central.

As for possible replacements, Nick Nelson, Aaron Gleeman, and Joe Posnanski have already explored the issue in greater depth.  I favor the closer-by-committee approach, though I know Gardy doesn't and he'll probably name a permanent replacement within the first few weeks of the season.  Matt Guerrier and Jon Rauch seem to be the frontrunners for the ninth-inning job, although Pat Neshek is having a great spring** and certainly can't be counted out, either.  Prospect Anthony Slama, who had often come up in discussions as a possible replacement for Nathan after the 2012 season, also looks impressive in camp, but he's never pitched in the major leagues (he isn't even on the 40-man roster) and it's unlikely Gardy would stick him in high-leverage situations right away.  Others favor converting Francisco Liriano to closer, but the organization is loath to do so, and for good reason.  If Liriano is even somewhat close to his 2006 form, heck, if he's even above league-average this year, he's much more valuable as a starter than a reliever (besides, if he can't get his walk and home run rates under control, he probably shouldn't be closing anyway). 

**Yes, spring training numbers are meaningless, and no, I wouldn't count on a guy who hasn't pitched in two years to close out games, either.

I tend to think Nathan's replacement will come from within the organization.  There isn't much out there on the market in terms of bullpen help, and a good reliever with closer experience (such as Heath Bell) will likely cost too much in terms of prospects.  Besides, Twins' closers have pretty much always come from within.  Joe Nathan emerged when Eddie Guardado left (seriously, the panic over Everyday Eddie leaving is kind of funny in hindsight), and Guardado replaced the sucktastic LaTroy Hawkins, who replaced the departing Rick Aguilera, who replaced the departing Jeff Reardon, and on and on.  I'm not going to venture to guess who might emerge as the closer-of-the-near-future, but right now the Twins' best bet would simply be to wait and see who wins the job.

Maybe Denard Can Quit His Internship Now

You know, after signing that 5-year, $16.5 million contract extension and all.

Four More Years

Well, it wasn't the contract extension we've been waiting for, but the Twins announced they signed Nick Blackburn to a 4-year, $14 million deal with a club option for 2014.  On the surface, this looks like a ridiculously good deal for the Twins.  The details of the contract haven't been released yet, but this is essentially a cost-controlling move, with the Twins buying out the rest of Blackburn's arbitration years as well as his first year of free agency.  Blackburn has been a 5.5 WAR pitcher since making his debut as a September call-up in 2007, tossing around 200 innings a season and posting a 4.39 ERA.  He isn't exactly what anyone could (or should) consider the ace of the rotation, but Blackbeard is the sort of reliable workhorse most teams would love to have rounding out their rotation.  As long as he continues to gobble up innings and turn in at least league-average performances, Blackbeard will be worth the $14 million.

However, this deal isn't without risk.  Blackbeard will be locked up until he's 32, and typically pitchers with pedestrian stuff and a high contact rate don't age well.  I've gone over Blackbeard's limitations as a pitcher in greater detail here, and, well, I'm not really sure how he's managed to pitch as well as he has up to this point.  He gives up a lot of hits, he has a pretty mediocre ground ball rate, he gives up an awful lot of fly balls for a sinkerballer, he doesn't strike out many batters, really the only thing he does well is not issue a ton of walks. Considering that Blackburn only has two full seasons in the major leagues under his belt, the timing of this deal seems odd.  He's under team control for at least the next three seasons, and isn't likely to make that much in arbitration, so what's the harm in making him wait at least another year to prove his success isn't a fluke?  I realize that the Twins want to control payroll costs as much as possible, and locking up players through their final arbitration years is a good way to do that, but it just seems like too risky a proposition for a player with so little upside.

Projections, Shmrojections

I've been sitting on this post for almost a month now. I've been meaning to publish my thoughts on what the division might look like this year, but I just haven't had the time to finish it.  Now that I have a rare weekend with little homework (aside from studying for a test), I finally have a chance to finish this thing.  *sigh* Someday I'm going to finish college, I really am.

The Twinks:  I'll be on the conservative side and put the Twins at about 85 wins this season. The offense looks to be the best in the division, especially after the acquisition of Jim Thome, but the outfield and the starting rotation look pretty iffy.  Of course, one probably shouldn't put too much faith in a soon-to-be-40-year-old DH, but Thome will likely provide more power off the bench than Alexi Casilla or Matt Tolbert.  Ideally, he should be platooned with Delmon Young against right-handed pitching, but then someone would have to explain the concept of a platoon to Gardy.  The addition of Orlando Hudson instantly makes a decent infield the strongest in the division.  Unfortunately, the outfield is terrible.  Denard Span should be a good defensive center fielder (his below-average UZR numbers in center are likely due to a small sample size; he looks pretty solid there) but Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young are among the worst everyday players in baseball.  Jason Kubel will likely be the starting right fielder when Span gets a day off, which means the Twins could be trotting out the worst defensive outfield ever.  Hopefully one of the ground-ball pitchers, such as Blackburn or Pavano, will get the start.

Speaking of the rotation, there's a lot to like and a lot to be concerned about.  Early reports about Francisco Liriano, both from the Dominican Winter League and his early batting practice sessions, have been encouraging.  I'm not sure how accurate the radar guns used in the DWL are, but his velocity is reportedly back up to about 94 mph and his slider has the same pre-TJ bite.  Scouts have been raving about his performance though, and if F-bomb is indeed back to his pre-surgery form, could emerge as the ace the Twins have been looking for.  Of course, he has yet to face much major-league quality hitting, so I'll believe F-bomb is back to his 2006 form when I see it.  Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn should be as solid as ever, while Carl Pavano will probably be worth his $7 million if, you know, he stays healthy.  Kevin Slowey, well, I'm a little worried about K-Slow.  He revealed in a recent interview that his wrist hasn't felt the same since having two screws surgically implanted last year, and he doesn't sound optimistic about the upcoming season.  Oy, I hope Glen Perkins doesn't hold a grudge.

The Pale Hosers:  I honestly don't know what to make of the White Sox.  Whatever you want to say about GM Kenny Williams, he has quietly assembled the most terrifying starting rotation in all of baseball:  Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd is as good as it gets, while top prospect Daniel Hudson looks to be major-league ready (and Freddy Garcia should be a competent fifth-starter if he isn't).  Their bullpen isn't quite as strong, but it should be pretty good, especially if Bobby Jenks returns to form (and if he doesn't, they're probably better off with Matt Thornton as closer anyway).  Their offense, on the other hand, stinks.  Jermaine Dye, Jim Thome, and Paul Konerko were the Sox's best hitters last year, and of the three, only Konerko will be back.  Alex Rios was a huge disappointment after coming over from Toronto, batting just .199/.229/.301, but is young enough to rebound, especially in a hitter's park like U.S. Cellular field.  The same can be said for the oft-injured Carlos Quentin, who batted .236/.323/.456 on the rare occasion he was in the lineup.  Juan Pierre is Juan Pierre, but at least Gordon Beckham will likely haunt my dreams for years to come (Unless he gets traded to the Padres for Adrian Gonzalez.  Oh, please, please, please make this happen Kenny Williams, and throw in Danks while you're at it.).  Unless the Sox add another bat or three to the lineup, they'll probably finish somewhere around .500.

The Racist Mascots:  The Indians, projected by many (including PECOTA and yours truly) to win the division last year, instead finished the season tied with Kansas City for last place. Travis Hafner was injured and mostly ineffective, Fausto Carmona was a huge disappointment, and Cleveland dealt their Cy Young winner at the trade deadline after falling out of contention around May.  So 2009 was essentially a repeat of 2008 for Indians fans, except with more losing.  Unfortunately, it doesn't look like things will be much better for the Indians this year.  Payroll constraints have prevented the front office from making any upgrades, aside from inking Russell Branyan to a one-year, $2 million deal.  I could see Cleveland winning 77 games this year, but that's about it.  Cleveland recently shook up its organization, firing manager Eric Wedge and bringing in Manny Acta, and kicking GM Mark Shapiro upstairs while promoting his long-term assistant Chris Antonetti.  They've still got Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo (who might have to serve in the Korean military, yikes), and through a number of smart trades, they do have a lot of young talent in the system, but right now Cleveland is clearly in rebuilding mode.

Teh Kittehs: Coming off of an 88-loss season in 2008, Detroit certainly wasn't expected to make any noise last year.  Most projection systems figured they'd  battle the Royals for last place in the division. But Detroit surprised everyone when they got off to a hot start, and they lead the division by a pretty comfortable margin up until the last three weeks of the season.  Like the White Sox, their starting rotation looks to be pretty strong while the offense looks pretty weak.  Detroit easily has the second-best starting rotation in the division, and that's even if Max Scherzer fails to make it as a starter.  Unfortunately, the Tigers' weak offense only got weaker when Curtis Granderson was dealt to the Yankees (although, it was on the whole a good move for the Tigers).  Austin Jackson...well, he might be good eventually.  Miguel Cabrera is one of the most dangerous hitters in the league, but he's flanked by aging and declining (and expensive) teammates in Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen.  The addition of Johnny Damon will help ease the loss of Granderson, but he won't add much power to a lineup that could really use it.  Interesting fact:  Detroit has never won the Central since the divisions were realigned in 1995.  They probably won't do it this year, either.

The Royals:  The Royals capped off a decade of futility with one of their worst seasons in franchise history.  Save for your 2009 AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, the Mexecutioner, Billy Butler, and, um...uh...the fountain at Kaufmann Stadium, there wasn't much to cheer for in the KC.  Unfortunately, things don't look like they're about to get better anytime soon.  PECOTA projects 74 wins for the Royals for this year, which might be a tad optimistic. GM Dayton Moore has essentially been busy this offseason making moves that, while they weren't horrible, don't really do much to improve the team. In a vacuum, low-risk, low-cost signings like Rick Ankiel and Jason Kendall are precisely the kind of moves a rebuilding organization should make while waiting for its young players to develop. It's just that the Kansas City roster was already full such players, and guys like Ankiel and Kendall cost a lot more than guys like John Buck and David DeJesus without providing much of an upgrade.  So, the Royals spent about $8.7 million to maybe improve by half a win.

That isn't to say that things are completely hopeless in KC.  Greinke and Gilgameche provide a powerful 1-2 punch, and Joakim Soria is one of the game's best closers, though it probably won't be enough to overcome what projects to be the worst offense in the league. And who knows? Maybe Josh Fields and Chris Getz will turn out to be useful everyday players.  Still, if Kyle Farnsworth has a legitimate shot to be your fifth starter, it's safe to say your playoff chances are pretty slim.

Today?! Why, it's Nick Punto Day!

In honor of this most scrappiest of days*, I present this thing I wrote about him sometime earlier. Like the man himself, it's pretty OK:

*WTF is Nick Punto Day, you ask? Find out here.

While working on my analysis of the offense, I was pleasantly surprised to discover that Nick Punto has actually been worth more than the $4.5 million he's getting paid this year. I was going to write a post about that, but Fangraphs' Jack Moore beat me to it. Moore wrote a pretty good assessment of Punto and his skills, although I think it would have been helpful to put his 2009 performance into perspective by comparing him to other position players. Admittedly, that is a difficult thing to do, since Punto rarely has a fixed position in the infield, but he spent most of his time at second base this year, so perhaps it would be best to just compare him to other American League second-basemen (I'll stick with the AL, since I don't really want to make a table comparing 100+ position players). And so here they are, ranked according to wins above replacement (minimum 170 plate appearances):

Name	Team	wOBA	UZR	WAR
Ben Zobrist	Rays	.408	15.6	8.5
Dustin Pedroia	Red Sox	.360	10.2	5.2
Ian Kinsler	Rangers	.358	9.8	4.6
Robinson Cano	Yankees	.370	-6.1	4.3
Aaorn Hill	Blue Jays	.357	-1.5	4.3
Brian Roberts	Orioles	.356	-8.8	3.4
Placido Polanco	Tigers	.321	12.1	3.2
Maicer Izturis	Angels	.348	6.0	2.9
Alberto Callaspo	Royals	.352	-7.8	2.7
Jose Lopez	Mariners	.325	1.8	2.6
Howie Kendrick	Angels	.341	2.2	2.1
Adam Kennedy	Athletics	.337	-4.6	1.8
Jamey Carroll	Indians	.317	2.7	1.5
Akinori Iwamura	Rays	.338	0.3	1.2
Nick Punto	Twins	.295	2.7	1.2
Mark Ellis	Athletics	.310	1.8	1.2
Omar Vizquel	Rangers	.301	0.0	1.1
Jayson Nix	White Sox	.319	4.5	1.1
Ramon Santiago	Tigers	.307	-0.6	0.4
Chris Getz	White Sox	.312	-5.8	0.2
Luis Valbuena	Indians	.308	-5.4	0.2
Willy Aybar	Rays	.328	-3.8	0.1
Matt Tolbert	Twins	.278	-2.6	-0.2
Alexi Casilla	Twins	.260	-9.4	-1.4

Punto was the 15th most-valuable second baseman in the league this year, and that's mostly because of his defense. Punto's .295 wOBA is second only to Yuniesky Betancourt's .271 as the worst of all qualified hitters in the league. However, I would argue that his versatility (Punto has played three different positions this season and is an above-average defender at each one) makes him more valuable to his team in general than other slightly above-average second-basemen such as Jose Lopez and Adam Kennedy, and probably even more valuable than the all-hit, no-glove Alberto Callaspo. He certainly isn't as valuable as someone like Maicer Izturis, who is above-average both offensively and defensively (as well as fairly versatile himself), but having him as a starter isn't exactly costing the team wins, either. Actually, the front office could probably just pick which position between second and short is most in need of an upgrade and have Punto start the other.

I think Punto is a good example of how a player might be overrated and yet somehow under-valued at the same time. People tend to love Punto because he's "scrappy" and "gritty" and he "plays the game the right way", often pointing to one or two brilliant defensive plays as evidence that he is one of the best defenders in the league. Except his defense, while solid, isn't quite that good, and is in fact just barely good enough to make up for his pathetic offense. And really, if it weren't for his versatility, Punto would be about as valuable to the Twins as Matt Tolbert.

Haters, on the other hand, point to his numerous baserunning gaffes, occasional defensive lapses, and paltry .322 on-base percentage as proof that Little Nicky has no place on any major-league roster anywhere. But his skills, limited as they may be, are still pretty valuable nonetheless. It isn't easy to find players that can play one position adequately, let alone three. He might not be one of the best hitters in the league, but Punto does take a lot of pitches (4.2 per plate appearance), and subsequently he tends to draw a lot of walks without striking out a whole lot. It's enough to make him worth $5.5 million this year, and his 2-year, $8.5 million contract, while hardly a bargain, looks to be at least market value.

Somebody Pinch Me

Holy crap, spending money on free agents who might actually improve the team? Are these really our Twins?  After snagging Jim Thome from the bargain bin, they've now inked second baseman Orlando Hudson to a reasonable one year, $5 million deal.  If he can get Joe Mauer locked up in a ridiculously team-friendly extension, I may be forced to take back every mean thing I've ever said about Bill Smith.  My schedule is pretty brutal this semester so I haven't had much time to write (or read, for that matter, sorry fellow baseball bloggers), but lots of other smart people have already weighed in:

Some of Hudson's new teammates expressed their delight with the signing on Twitter:

thisisdspan:

Wake up this morning to see we signed the o dog! If ur a twins fan today u have to be juiced! I thought we already were lookin good before

PatNeshek:

Love the O-Hud signing, what a team!

Aaron Gleeman points out that, even though Hudson has slipped a bit defensively and hits into a ton of double plays, he provides a significant upgrade over the Twins' current second base options at a reasonable price.  That's right, the middle infield will now be above replacement-level for the first time since Jason Bartlett was traded to the Rays.  I think I've forgotten what that looks like.

Dave Cameron also approves.  Actually, he's approved of pretty much all the moves the Twins made this year.  I'm not sure I'm ready for a world in which Dave Cameron thinks the Twins are a well-run organization.

Howard Sinker  and Andrew at Off the Mark think this is the best offseason the Twins have had in years, and I agree.  Of course, there is one more little issue that still needs to be resolved.

Over at Twinkie Town, Adam Peterson has done the math and figured out how much Thome and Hudson might improve the team (though it was written before the Hudson signing was official).

Who will be designated for assignment to make room for the O-Dog on the 40-man roster?  It might be Alexi Casilla.

Of course, as Cameron notes, the tough free agent market is the only reason someone like Hudson was even in the Twins' price range in the first place.  Teams don't want to overspend on free agents in this economy, preferring to give younger and cheaper players a starting job instead.  Elite players like Mark Teixeira will always command top dollar, but lesser type-A free agents like Hudson (and Johnny Damon) will probably struggle to find work.  It's a shame that such players will have to settle for far less money than they're really worth, but this new market inefficiency may work in the favor of smaller and mid-market teams like the Twins.

Goodbye, NBP

It's official:  the Mike Redmond era in Minnesota is over.  I mean, I knew it was pretty much over last year, when he threw out only four of 45 potential base stealers while slugging a mere .289 (well, and when the front office announced it was going in a different direction).  It's hard to say how much of that was due to his shoulder injury, but at 38, it's safe to assume that Red's best years are behind him.  Jose Morales is more than ready to take over as Mauer's caddy, although it turns out he's going to need wrist surgery and will miss at least the first week of spring training (um, is Brad Ausmus available? Sal Fasano? Michael Barrett, hey that would make games against the Sox much more um, interesting!).  I don't blame the Twins at all for moving on, but I'm still going to miss Red.  I have tremendous respect for someone who worked so hard to earn and keep a spot on a major league roster, and his reluctance to hang it up is certainly understandable.  There are so many memorable Red Dog moments: from naked batting practice (his proven slump-busting technique!), to that time he legged jogged out a triple, making the entire bench (not to mention the Dome) erupt in laughter.  His toughness was legendary; I mean, he was right back in the dugout after taking a bat to the head, requiring seven stitches.  Besides, he's one of the few bench players that I know of to inspire an entire marketing campaign: